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Intelligence
Words of Estimative Probability

"In God we trust.
All others we monitor."

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Sherman Kent's Words of Estimative Probability

Certain
100%
  •  
  •  
Almost Certain
93%
  • Give or take about 6%
  •  
Probable
75%
  • Give or take about 12%
  •  
Chances About Even
50%
  • Give or take about 10%
  •  
Probably Not
30%
  • Give or take about 10%
  •  
Certainly Not
7%
  • Give or take about 5%
  •  
Impossible
0%
  • 0% Impossibility
  •