Werzit

Intelligence

 

"In God we trust.
All others we monitor."

  Economics | History | Intelligence | MilitaryRegions | Religion | Terrorism

    

Markle Foundation Task Force
Modeling and Decision Support Tools
Intelligence refers to information relevant to a government's formulating and implementing policy to further its national security interests and to deal with threats to those interests from actual or potential adversaries. [Abram Shulsky, Silent Warfare, p. 1]

Intelligence appears to be a science, and it is barely an art. Sometimes the same bit of intelligence can be interpretted in many different ways. [George Friedman, Stratfor Daily Podcast, Dec 4, 2007 2:12 - 2:21]

Agencies

Analytic Methods
  • Advanced Utility Analysis
  • Causal Flow Diagramming
  • Decision/Event Tree
  • Devil's Advocacy
  • Divergent/Convergent Thinking
  • Hypothesis Testing
  • Matrix, The
  • Probability Tree
  • Problem Restatement
  • Pros-Cons-and-Fixes
  • Sorting, Chronologies, and Time Lines
  • Utility Matrix
  • Utility Tree
  • Weighted Ranking

Analytic Techniques
  • Argument Evaluation
  • Bayesian Analysis
  • Causal Loop Diagrams
  • Competing Hypotheses
  • Probability Tree Diagrams

Articles
  •  

Books
Briefings
  • BLUF: Bottom Line Up Front
  • Assessment
  • Likely Q & A
  • Supporting Charts, Tables, or Graphs
  • "Action Support" Test
  • "So What" Test
Classification Levels
  • Confidential
  • Secret
  • Top Secret
  •  
Clearance Levels
  • Confidential
  • Secret
  • Top Secret
  • Single Scope Background Investigation (SSBI)
  • Sensitive Compartmented Information (SCI)

Competitive Intelligence

Consumers
  • President
  • Department of Agriculture
  • Defense Department
  • Department of Energy
  • Environmental Protection Agency
  • Joint Chiefs of Staff
  • Military
  • National Security Advisor
  • National Security Council and staff
  • NASA
  • Policy Makers
  • State Department

Counterintelligence
Elicitation
  • Proactive Statement
  • Quid Pro Quo
  • Simple Flattery
  • Exploiting the Instinct To Complain
  • Word Repetition
  • Quotation of Reported Facts
  • Naivite
  • Oblique Reference
  • Criticism
  • Bracketing Techniques
  • Feigned or Real Disbelief
  • Purposefully Erroneous Statement
Failures of Intelligence
  • Overthrow of the Shah
  • Marine Corps Barracks Attack in Beirut
  • Collapse of Soviet Union
  • September 11th
  • No WMD in Iraq

 

Indications & Warnings (I&W)
  • Indicators: Defined
  • Warning Paradox
  • Indications & Warnings Matrix
  • Observer Examples
  • Indicators Examples
  • Threats
  • Anomalies
  • Internal Challenges

Jargon Glossary

Legal Matters
  •  

Logic

wpe1.jpg (3277 bytes)

Monitoring and Surveillance
Papers

Predictions

Probing
  • Ancestry
  • Authority Figures
  • Body Language
  • Class
  • Creativity
  • Disciplinary Actions
  • Friendships
  • Gender
  • History
  • Limits
  • Morals of the Time
  • Mortality
  • Nature of Man
  • Race
  • Religious View
  • Sex and Marriage
  • Success
  • World View

Products
  • Basic Intelligence Report
  • National Intelligence Daily
  • National Intelligence Estimate
  • Periodic Reports
  • Presidential Daily Briefing
  • Psychological Profiles
  • Special National Intelligence Estimates

Profiling

Psychological Tools
Psychological Trauma
  • Articles
  • Books
  • Psychological Shocks
  • Theorists
  •  

Sites
Software
  • Army Intelligence Applications
  • Coalition Intelligence Applications
  • Joint Intelligence Applications
  •  

Types

Weasel Words
  • A Chance
  • Cannot Dismiss
  • Suggest
  • Maybe
  • Possibly
  • Could
  • Might
  • Its Conceivable
  • May
  • We believe that (or not)
  • We estimate that (or not)
  • We cannot discount
  • We cannot rule out (or not)
  • We cannot discount
  • Perhaps

Words of Estimative Probability
  • Certain
  • Almost Certain
  • Probable
  • Chances About Even
  • Probably Not
  • Certainly Not
  • Impossible